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Thread: Kingmaker

  1. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Blazin1 View Post
    Why did you quote me?
    You nicely explained why block voting is useful, and Gibby was having trouble with that one.

  2. #162
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    Thought it was a misquote.
    Quote Originally Posted by Baron D'Holbach View Post
    You should quote yourself. It's like liking your Facebook status or high-fiving yourself in the mirror.

    It's what I would do if I didn't have to keep mine exactly how it is for madsquirrels and erazer.

  3. #163
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    Nope. Considered going through the thread to find where Kerzi listed some of the benefits, too, but I'm pretty sure Gibby's just throwing shade at me for the sake of continuing the frame job at this point.

  4. #164
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    She could just be a patsy, letting the actual assassins get away with the frame job without getting any dirt on their own hands. But seriously, when the rest of you read all this, you must see that this is a damned obvious frame job.

  5. #165
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    It does look like a frame up, no doubt there.
    Quote Originally Posted by Baron D'Holbach View Post
    You should quote yourself. It's like liking your Facebook status or high-fiving yourself in the mirror.

    It's what I would do if I didn't have to keep mine exactly how it is for madsquirrels and erazer.

  6. #166
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    There are 8 players left, and there were 13 to start. If this round has a normal mafia ratio (ie. how many mafia I'd make if I were hosting a 13 member round), then there are 3.

    In that case, this is LYLO, and it would make perfect sense for Gibby to out herself for this mislynch to win the game.

    Guessing Gibby isn't a patsy, and the mafia hopes that lynching me can be the last lynch of the game (ie. no repercussions for having obviously framing me).

    TL;DR this discussion, if you believe Gibby's frame job, vote for me. If you don't, vote for Gibby. If there are a bunch of people who think Gibby is not actually an assassin but has fallen for their frame job, y'alls should speak up in time to get votes on someone else.

  7. #167

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    I'm "framing" you by asking you to explain yourself, and you still can't give us a simple answer?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mouse-Keyboard View Post

    Given Burn's aggression and sometimes faulty logic, if Mullion is innocent I'm voting for Burn tomorrow.
    This stands.
    Quote Originally Posted by Baron D'Holbach View Post
    I'm going to go ahead and call this Cranny Envy

  8. #168
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gibby View Post
    I'm "framing" you by asking you to explain yourself, and you still can't give us a simple answer?
    I gave about 7 simple answers.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gibby View Post
    This stands.
    Speaking of this, whichever way this vote goes, after this round, we need to talk about this. Gibby has one of those from Deadpool coming down the line, too. Guys, if you're town, this only helps mafia frame. Their frame job this round is really good. Like, if whoever the king is votes for me, I'm going to have to tip my hat to the assassins when they win for it, because Deadpool and MK made it so so easy to frame me. When you're town, these one-liners tend not to help the rest of the town win.

  9. #169
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    Echo, I see you lurking. Comment, please.

    My defense of myself is clear, so it's up to the rest of you to make a decision.

  10. #170
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Burninator View Post
    Echo, I see you lurking. Comment, please.

    My defense of myself is clear, so it's up to the rest of you to make a decision.
    I'm actually having trouble working out how this is all going down. I'm not convinced on Burn or Gibby really. But this round is a bit tricky.
    We only have 2 votes in. Neither feel clean to me. Gibby might look like she's framing you burn, but it doesn't look like a mafia play to me. Why would they need to? It's too easy to just follow a lynch lead. There's very little chance they would all be on assassins.
    I'm glad I'm not judgemental like all you smug, superficial idiots

  11. #171
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    I don't think we should be targeting Burn... It's hard to say though.

    I'm more suspicious of those individuals that are advocating for us to just randomly choose targets. Those seem to be mafia players to me.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kurtz View Post
    We learnt ... from [Kimmie]!
    Quote Originally Posted by FA Belladonna View Post
    Kurtz, the horse is dead, please stop beating it.

  12. #172
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rokchick View Post
    I'm actually having trouble working out how this is all going down. I'm not convinced on Burn or Gibby really. But this round is a bit tricky.
    We only have 2 votes in. Neither feel clean to me. Gibby might look like she's framing you burn, but it doesn't look like a mafia play to me. Why would they need to? It's too easy to just follow a lynch lead. There's very little chance they would all be on assassins.
    Because it's probably LYLO and they have it all set up to go. Plus, if one of them is king, it's GG even if they numerically lose the vote. So why shouldn't they vote for me with reason "I'm mafia"? 3/6 chance one of them is king. (Assuming Gibby is one and they have 3.)

    That said, I'm open to the position that she's just a patsy, because the frame really is that good. But then who do you think is mafia? One of the less actives almost certainly.** Carni or m.walker.m. Or both. But are the chances on them better than on Gibby?

    ** for one thing we still haven't explained the delayed Kp1, and for another, it's just good strategy to have at least one sitting in wait.

  13. #173
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    Oh, hot damn, it's worse -- it's closer to a 3/5 chance if there are 3 of them and they just go "Vote: Burn Reason: I'm mafia" because

    6 players -> 3 mafia + 1 kingmaker + 3 townies -> night begins -> one non-mafia player dies.
    5 players -> 3 mafia + 0.75 kingmakers (ie a 1/4 chance the kill was on the kingmaker) and 2.25 townies (ie a 3/4 chance the kill went on a reg townie), then,

    25% of the time you'd have a 3/6 chance that the king is mafia, since if the kingmaker dies, there were 3 townies who could be the king and 3 mafia, and
    75% of the time you'd have a 3/5 chance that the king is mafia, since if the kingmaker is alive there were only 2 townies who could be king and 3 mafia.

    That nets a 57.5% chance that the king is mafia if there are 3 mafia.

    So... we probably lost.

  14. #174
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    Anyway, the only case I see Gibby as a patsy is if there are less than 3 mafia. If you are swayed by my argument that the frame is so obvious so I must be town, and you (the reader of this post) is also town, then the odds Gibby is mafia are damn high with 3 mafia in play and given her behavior.

    If there are less than 3 mafia then the situation is much less dire, and I believe Gibby could be a patsy.

  15. #175
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    Also, I want to point out to those of you who are town (and those of you who need to act like town), that means that there is absolutely zero reason for any mafia member to vote for mafia this night. None whatsoever. If we make this more complex than a 50/50, then the odds the king is town AND that the king actually selected a mafia member look hella long. (Long odds are bad.)

    The more I think about it the more it needs to be a 50/50, Rok, and Gibby set it up so well by framing me. You admit that it looks like a frame job, so why not cast a vote?

    The only people who have cause to hesitate in a 50/50 are town. That's my note to the assassins acting like town and townies alike. Real townies really have to think about whether Gibby's frame is an obvious frame or if it's actually because I'm mafia. (Hint: I'm not.) Mafia members can come in at any point and say they've decided to vote with Gibby. (Gibby will have to say that mafia members can come in at any point and say they've decided to vote with me, 'cause she'll have to argue that I'm maff.)

    That way the outcome options are:
    1) I'm lynched, and the mafia wins cause there were 3 of them (and I'm town)
    2) I'm lynched, and of the 3 people who voted for me, 2 are mafia, giving town hella good odds to win (again, I'll show town.)
    3) Gibby is lynched and comes up mafia, and everyone who voted with her is also mafia
    4) Gibby is lynched and comes up mafia, and everyone who voted for her minus one is also mafia
    5) Gibby is lynched and comes up town, and the mafia wins with 3 random players I have no idea about. (They'd have to have 3 players AND gibby and I would have to be innocent in this situation)
    6) Gibby is lynched and comes up town, and the people who voted with me are mafia. (Town is probably screwed in this instance since if gibby came up innocent and then mafia didn't win and then you all didn't lynch me, that'd be absurd. You should lynch me then. The issue is that I'd come up town, and THEN mafia would definitely win.)

    On the other hand, if don't make it 50/50, you end up with a situation where if a non-Gibby mafia member is lynched, then we have absolutely no information whatsoever about who is mafia. In this instance, both me and Gibby are not lynched (someone else is, as you suggest), then
    1) that person is town, and we lose
    2) that person is mafia, and we have no idea who the others are
    3) that person is town and we don't lose and I die tonight since my usefulness as a mislynch is done, and Gibby is lynched the next night (or damn well should be when I come up town), and comes up as a patsy and then mafia wins brilliantly,
    4) That person is town and we don't lose and someone else dies tonight (neither Gibby nor me) and we still have no idea who the mafia are.

    None of those 4 options are particularly good. The ones where we get a non-Gibby mafia member are exceedingly unlikely, since mafia alone gets a 57.5% chance of having the king, and then the chances that the townies votes for not-gibby are accurate nets a very low percent chance that a non-gibby maff is lynched. (I can actually do the math for you if you want).

  16. #176
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    I won't post again; all the analysis is here. (Unless someone wants me to do more math -- but then I'll just post the result, not another text wall.)

    I urge you all to do an outcome tree like I just posted and pick the option that has the best list of possible outcomes for town.

  17. #177
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    There have been 3 votes cast at this point, correct me if wrong.
    Me- carnival
    Tb- Gibby
    Gibby-TB
    TB, are you saying it's 50/50 between Rok and Gibby. I'm at work and there is a lot to read through
    Quote Originally Posted by Baron D'Holbach View Post
    You should quote yourself. It's like liking your Facebook status or high-fiving yourself in the mirror.

    It's what I would do if I didn't have to keep mine exactly how it is for madsquirrels and erazer.

  18. #178
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Blazin1 View Post
    There have been 3 votes cast at this point, correct me if wrong.
    Me- carnival
    Tb- Gibby
    Gibby-TB
    TB, are you saying it's 50/50 between Rok and Gibby. I'm at work and there is a lot to read through
    I should have bolded the TL;DR
    Quote Originally Posted by The Burninator View Post
    TL;DR this discussion, if you believe Gibby's frame job, vote for me. If you don't, vote for Gibby. If there are a bunch of people who think Gibby is not actually an assassin but has fallen for their frame job, y'alls should speak up in time to get votes on someone else.
    TL;DR this discussion, if you believe Gibby's frame job, vote for me. If you don't, vote for Gibby. If there are a bunch of people who think Gibby is not actually an assassin but has fallen for their frame job, y'alls should speak up in time to get votes on someone else.

    That's where I think we are right now.

    (It's 50/50 for me vs gibby)

  19. #179
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    Tempted to vote for Gibby...
    Quote Originally Posted by Kurtz View Post
    We learnt ... from [Kimmie]!
    Quote Originally Posted by FA Belladonna View Post
    Kurtz, the horse is dead, please stop beating it.

  20. #180
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    unvote
    Need some time to think.
    Quote Originally Posted by Baron D'Holbach View Post
    You should quote yourself. It's like liking your Facebook status or high-fiving yourself in the mirror.

    It's what I would do if I didn't have to keep mine exactly how it is for madsquirrels and erazer.

  21. #181
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    Welp, this is a hard read. I agree that there looks to be a frame job on TB, but it's pretty fricking blatant, which I find off putting. Kerzi, Rok and echo I read as town, I can't be sure, but find it hard to believe otherwise. I am not comfortable voting against those the four ATM. Gibby is 50/50 for me, and walker and carnival stand out the most due to their silence. I still feel block voting is the best shot, but I'm having trouble picking someone. I will follow the pack, what is the vote count? 1&1 between Gibby and burn?
    Quote Originally Posted by Baron D'Holbach View Post
    You should quote yourself. It's like liking your Facebook status or high-fiving yourself in the mirror.

    It's what I would do if I didn't have to keep mine exactly how it is for madsquirrels and erazer.

  22. #182
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    Yes, agree with you as well with those reading as town.

    I think two block votes is the best shot.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kurtz View Post
    We learnt ... from [Kimmie]!
    Quote Originally Posted by FA Belladonna View Post
    Kurtz, the horse is dead, please stop beating it.

  23. #183

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    I am sorely tempted to vote for Burn. He sounds quite desperate to throw suspicion anywhere but at himself. But one post is so disingenuous that I have to vote for that poster.

    Quote Originally Posted by ECH0 View Post
    I don't think we should be targeting Burn... It's hard to say though.

    I'm more suspicious of those individuals that are advocating for us to just randomly choose targets. Those seem to be mafia players to me.

    VOTE Echo

    It would seem to follow that if one of those two gets lynched and is Mafia, that the other one is, too.

    Excel

    (I hope that type of bold satisfies everyone. )

  24. #184
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    Well that basically conftowns Echo...

  25. #185
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    My 3 man mafia team is {Gibby, m.walker.m, (one of the following: Rok or Carni).} I read Kerzi town but Kerzi is too damn good at this game for me to read her in the first place.

    Blaze is almost definitely town.

    Yes, Blaze, the only votes were
    Gibby (Me)
    Me (Gibby)

    and now
    Echo (m.walker.m)

    That last one was a misplay whether m.walker.m is town or maff. Guessing maff based on how off base it is, though. (It's slightly better if it's maff.)

    And the teams crystallize.

    I don't quite want to wager my mafia reputation on Gibby being Mafia, but she defs is.

  26. #186
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    Holy ****.

    I just got home, and I have to feed and water the kids. I need to reread today a few times before I can process it...just, holy **** there's a lot here.

    One comment first: Burn, you said it was lylo if there were 3 mafia. I thought mafia had to outnumber town, not tie them. Am I stupidly wrong on that point?
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  27. #187
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kerzi View Post
    One comment first: Burn, you said it was lylo if there were 3 mafia. I thought mafia had to outnumber town, not tie them. Am I stupidly wrong on that point?
    In my rounds, maff wins when they tie town.

    SC, do the assassins win ties?

  28. #188
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Blazin1 View Post
    Welp, this is a hard read. I agree that there looks to be a frame job on TB, but it's pretty fricking blatant, which I find off putting. Kerzi, Rok and echo I read as town, I can't be sure, but find it hard to believe otherwise. I am not comfortable voting against those the four ATM. Gibby is 50/50 for me, and walker and carnival stand out the most due to their silence. I still feel block voting is the best shot, but I'm having trouble picking someone. I will follow the pack, what is the vote count? 1&1 between Gibby and burn?
    It pains me, but this is about where I am too.

    I would put my vote on walker or Carni if there wasn't this block vote stuff to think about. So I'm going with Burn this time. I suspect 2 assassins, and maybe one or even 2 "others" as well as the kingmaker. But we do need something more than random tonight.


    Vote: Gibby
    I'm glad I'm not judgemental like all you smug, superficial idiots

  29. #189
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    As a note, if there are only 2 maff, AND Gibby is maff, then gibby's move is very silly. I'd suspect that if there are only 2 maff, that Gibby isn't one.

  30. #190
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    Piling on Gibby? I can do that.

    Vote: Gibby

    I'm willing to change the vote if we'd prefer someone else...

    Got no idea why my post is so bad though...
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  31. #191
    Artisan Kerzi's Avatar
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    Brood is fed. I've reread everything a few times. Still not sure, but I'm leaning here:

    Vote: Gibby
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  32. #192

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Burninator View Post
    In my rounds, maff wins when they tie town.

    SC, do the assassins win ties?
    Although technically only 1 vote is counted per day, the alternative requires me to use my brain but it currently hurts...
    The alternative would be entirely dependent on previous kings. I.e. If only the mafia are left to become kings, then town automatically loses all ensuring lynches guaranteeing mafia victory. If all the mafia were kings earlier, then town should consistently hold the lynch and may be able to clinch back victory from the jaws of death.
    There are other variables which then come into play which also further complicate the issue.

    Essentially, I cannot currently resolve what would happen if play continued when mafia tie town and as such, will stick to normal convention. I.e. Mafia wins when they tie town in numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonothan Crane
    Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.

  33. #193
    Consul The Blazin1's Avatar
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    I'm good with Gibby.
    vote Gibby
    Quote Originally Posted by Baron D'Holbach View Post
    You should quote yourself. It's like liking your Facebook status or high-fiving yourself in the mirror.

    It's what I would do if I didn't have to keep mine exactly how it is for madsquirrels and erazer.

  34. #194

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    Time to clarify my thinking by posting what I think I know.

    1) Knowing who the king is or was helps no one. Anyone except the kingmaker could be the king at any given time. Including Mafia.
    2) Knowing who the kingmaker is does not help the townies.
    3) Block voting, even with 2 blocks, does not help the town figure out who is Mafia. I read some tortuous logic concerning this the first day, but I have read absolutely nothing that flowed from that logic that helped identify a single role and the player in it.

    The above thoughts on the situation don't immediately lead me to any conclusions or strategies that seem useful. Perhaps they jogged something in someone else's brain?

  35. #195
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    Quote Originally Posted by m.walker.m View Post
    Time to clarify my thinking by posting what I think I know.

    1) Knowing who the king is or was helps no one. Anyone except the kingmaker could be the king at any given time. Including Mafia.
    2) Knowing who the kingmaker is does not help the townies.
    3) Block voting, even with 2 blocks, does not help the town figure out who is Mafia. I read some tortuous logic concerning this the first day, but I have read absolutely nothing that flowed from that logic that helped identify a single role and the player in it.

    The above thoughts on the situation don't immediately lead me to any conclusions or strategies that seem useful. Perhaps they jogged something in someone else's brain?
    Why do you think Echo is mafia? I read him as hard town.

    He was mafia last round; if you look at his posts last round, they look a lot different from his posts this round. (Indicating he is likely town.)

  36. #196
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    Regarding 1), knowing who the king was helps mafia. Because the kingmaker isn't able to initially choose repeat kings, it is advantageous for mafia to kill townies that have not yet been king thus increasing the chance they are chosen as king if they can figure out who previous kingmakers are. This is why spreading out votes is a bad idea.

    2) I agree with. Other than that we shouldn't all put our votes on that person.

    3), it helps because if it targets mafia then those that voted for the mafia to be lynched are pretty much conftown.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kurtz View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by FA Belladonna View Post
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  37. #197
    Consul Rokchick's Avatar
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    The problem we are building is that if everyone blocks on Gibby then she' s not mafia. It might be too late to change, but who is left to vote? They are assassins, or Gibby is town, would be my take. So walker and Carni? Anyone else?
    This is interesting now, because even if it outs them, assassins still have no choice except not lynch each other.
    I'm glad I'm not judgemental like all you smug, superficial idiots

  38. #198
    Consul The Burninator's Avatar
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    Technically, it's game-rules possible that something like you (rok) and Kerzi are both the mafia, and doing an excellent job sounding like townies.

    But currently, m.walker.m and gibby still look mafia to me, possibly also carni. I feel like if there are only 2, it's the latter 2. Gibby's just so darn likable -- I want so much to believe that she just fell for the mafia's excellent job framing me rather than set up the whole thing.

  39. #199
    Consul The Blazin1's Avatar
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    I'm sticking to the block vote, mafia does not have to vote for each other as long as another player is voting elsewhere. Especially following a second vote block. It's a double edged sword though, if Gibby isn't mafia where will we be left? We need to stick together.
    Quote Originally Posted by Baron D'Holbach View Post
    You should quote yourself. It's like liking your Facebook status or high-fiving yourself in the mirror.

    It's what I would do if I didn't have to keep mine exactly how it is for madsquirrels and erazer.

  40. #200
    Consul The Blazin1's Avatar
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    FOR Rok, what you said is not true.
    Quote Originally Posted by Baron D'Holbach View Post
    You should quote yourself. It's like liking your Facebook status or high-fiving yourself in the mirror.

    It's what I would do if I didn't have to keep mine exactly how it is for madsquirrels and erazer.

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