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Thread: Werewolves in Greymont

  1. #1


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    Default Werewolves in Greymont

    The citizens of Greymont were enjoying their peaceful little town these days, with little care for the goings-on anywhere else in the world. They had heard rumours of Mafia invading Radcliffe Heights, their neighbours to the East, as well as Werewolves invading Litchfield, their neighbours to the North-West. But they were sure their little community was safe from such harms. So they carried on, plowing the grounds, cooking large meals to share with friends and family, and attending weekly church functions. They were completely oblivious to everything that was about to happen...

    Instead of just a mafia invading the peaceful town this round, there is also a pack of werewolves. So there are now 3 main competing factions (2 evil and 1 Town) in this round. At the start of the game, no one will know how many mafia or werewolves there are. Once a faction has been removed, it will be stated in the KP.

    For the mafia to win, they must eliminate all werewolves and either eliminate all townies or have a clear majority (including no power roles left for town that could prevent a win). For the werewolves to win, they must eliminate all mafia and eliminate or be able to overpower all townies. For townies to win, they must eliminate all mafia and werewolves. There may also be Independent players (Indies), which may have their own win conditions, or may win with the Town – any role descriptions for Indies will indicate whether they would need to be killed for Town to win.

    Werewolves are pack animals, so any kills performed by this faction must be performed by at least 2 members. When going for the kill, the Master Wolf will select how many (and which) Werewolves are to be sent. If enough werewolves are role-blocked, or otherwise unavailable for the kill (of those that were sent), and only 1 is left going to the player’s house, the kill will not go through. When only 1 Werewolf still remains in the game (this will *not* be noted in KP), it effectively becomes an Indie Survivor role (while still being any previous role it may have had).

    The Mafia faction will operate as per typical rounds. Both Mafia and Werewolves will have a Leader, ranked 1, with all other faction members ranked as well. When the Leader dies, the next highest member still alive will perform any duties that the Leader would have done. At any time during the game, a faction member may not both be sent for a kill and perform another role on the same night (however, they may send people for the kill and perform a different role, since sending people is not considered to be an action).


    Rules:
    1. All normal mafia rules apply, unless updated/overruled/clarified below.
    2. No lynch votes are permitted at any time. Anyone who does not vote for someone still alive and playing the game on a given day will be counted as a vote against themselves (not a “no lynch” vote).
    3. “Vote” must be bold for it to count (no exceptions). You may also “Unvote” and vote for someone else, but both must be bold. I will not be posting any vote counts. I will simply tally at KP time, and break ties randomly.
    4. No PM'ing (or talking outside of this forum about the game in any way) unless your role specifically allows it – members of each faction will know who others are in their faction, and will be able to PM each other.
    5. Vote and Special lock-in is at noon, EST. KP will be posted shortly thereafter.
    6. Role-Claims are discouraged, but permitted - though no one has to believe what you say.
    7. Dead players may post as long as it does not affect the game in any way, but must use [haunt] tags.
    8. I get the final say, and I have the right to update/edit rules at any time.
    Last edited by jason_kroeker; 02-03-2014 at 02:00 PM.

  2. #2


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    Potential role list:

    Note that roles listed here will not all be used. There can be multiples of the same role held by different factions, but there will never be multiples of a role within the same faction. And this list is in a different layout than roles are typically listed - it is listed by role types, and each type will indicate which faction can hold this role. It should be fairly self-explanatory as you read the descriptions.

    Role-Blocking roles:
    - these roles prevent someone else from being able to use their role
    - role-blocks happen in the order they are PM’ed to me, so it is possible for one RB’er to block another
    - all RB’s will be listed in KP’s
    - Role-Blockers can be aligned with Town, Mafia, or Werewolf

    Tracking roles:
    - Follower choses a target to follow, and is informed if that player goes to anyone else’s house at night
    - Watcher choses a target’s house to visit, and is informed of any players who visit that house at night
    - Insomniac rarely sleeps, and has a 2/3 chance of noticing if anyone visited his house
    - all Tracking roles above happen simultaneously, so it is possible to track another Tracker
    - Hunter is a passive role, but has a dog who tries to follow werewolf tracks on the ground in the early morning; 50% chance the dog is unsuccessful; if the dog finds tracks, 50% of the time, they lead to a house visited by a werewolf (randomly selected from any houses wolves visited), the other 50% lead to a werewolf’s house (randomly selected from wolves that left their house that night); the Hunter cannot be tracked by other Trackers
    - no actions performed by Trackers will be listed in KP’s
    - all Tracking roles will be Town-aligned

    Investigative roles:
    - Role Cop is told the type of role (Role-Blocker, Tracker, Investigator, Protector, Killer, Healer, or Other) their target holds, but not the alignment; can be aligned with Town, Mafia, or Werewolf
    - Killers (Godfather, Master Wolf, Vigilante, or Serial Killer) will appear as “Other” to Role Cops until they have performed a kill (note that a faction Leader sending someone else for a kill is not considered to be performing a kill)
    - Normal Cop is told whether their target is Mafia or Not Mafia; can be held by Town or Werewolf
    - Seer is told whether their target is Werewolf or Not Werewolf; can be held by Town or Mafia
    - Cop and Seer will find Killer roles “innocent” until after any of them have performed a kill (but would still find other faction members “guilty” even if they have not yet performed a kill
    - no actions performed by Investigators will be listed in KP’s

    Protecting roles:
    - Protections are not listed in KP, unless they actually affect a killing action, at which point the original target of the kill is listed along with any other relevant information
    - Bodyguard protects a target from the Mafia kill, and dies in their place
    - Elite Bodyguard protects a target from the Mafia kill, dies in their place, and also kills the Mafia member sent for the kill (unless it is the Godfather)
    - Guardian can protect a target from the Werewolf kill – if 2 Werewolves attack, the Guardian kills the lowest ranked (weakest) and the other runs away; if 3+ Werewolves attack, the Guardian kills the weakest, then the others kill the Guardian and leave
    - Wolfsbane spreads an herb over the door of one player every night that can scare away Werewolves that night (and is the only Protector who can protect themselves, but only every other night) – the herb is deadly to the weakest Werewolf that visits, but if 3+ Werewolves attack, the kill will still go through
    - all Protecting roles will be Town-aligned

    Killing roles:
    - the Godfather and Master Wolf choose who goes for the kill from their faction (more details were listed in the original post's introduction)
    - Vigilante wants to help keep the town safe and may perform a kill himself every night; is Town-aligned
    - Serial Killer is a crazy psychopath, as his name implies, and just wants to kill someone every night for fun; is an Indie
    - each death will be identified in KP’s in some way, but may not be clearly stated with who the killer was
    - similar to role-blocks, killings will be performed in the order they are PM’ed to me, so it is possible to prevent a kill from going through by killing another Killer

    Healing roles:
    - no Healers may save themselves
    - Healings are not listed in the KP, unless they affect the killing action
    - Doctor selects one target every night, and if that person is targeted by the Mafia, they will not die
    - Cleric selects one target every night, and if that person is targeted by Werewolves, they will not die
    - Master Healer selects one target every night, and can save that target from either a kill by Mafia or Werewolves (but cannot save the person if both factions target the player)
    - all Healing roles will be Town-aligned

    Other roles:
    - Absorber has a single-use ability, which can turn any Role-Blocker, Tracker, Investigator, Protector, or Healer into a Vanilla role (the target would be informed that they are no longer able to perform their role for the remainder of the round), and steal their ability, but is only able to perform it every other night (starting the night following the absorption); is aligned with Mafia or Werewolf
    - Mortician is a passive role, which allows players’ alignments only (Town, Mafia, Werewolf, or Indie) to be revealed upon death; once the Mortician dies, no more alignments are revealed upon death
    - Psychic may choose each night whether to focus on the remaining Mafia or Werewolves, and is told how many remain at the end of the night phase; is Town-aligned
    - Survivor must survive until the game is won; they are not actually Town members, but win when the Town wins; is an Indie role [note, if a the last remaining Werewolf becomes a Survivor, they will be declared the winner at the end of the game, but the game continues since Town must remove the last remaining Werewolf in order to win]
    - Grudge-Bearer is told the exact roles of 3 random players at the beginning of the game, and wins if the 3 of them die before he does (but the game would still continue)
    - Mayor has extra influence in the town, and their vote actually counts for 2; can be aligned as Town, Mafia, or Werewolf
    - Town Drunk believes they are the mayor, but their vote doesn’t actually count for anything; can be aligned as Town, Mafia, or Werewolf
    - Vanilla (effectively no special role); can be aligned as Town, Mafia, or Werewolf

    Order of Roles/Actions:
    Lynch
    Role-Blocker
    Tracker, except Hunter (may also track a Role-Block, if not RB’ed themselves)
    Investigator
    Protector
    Killer
    Healer
    Hunter (if in play)
    Psychic (if in play)

  3. #3


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    Players (10/21):
    The Burninator - alignment not posted
    JuliusCaesar
    FTP - Werewolf
    bw87 - alignment not posted
    Sirveri - alignment not posted
    mbstokem - alignment not posted
    gebne - alignment not posted
    ???? - Werewolf
    Mr Bacon
    Bunyip - Townie
    Flossie Schmumpus - alignment not posted
    Trotter - alignment not posted
    East - alignment not posted
    YeonAh
    Rokchick - Townie
    Vash103 - Townie
    Hidden sage - alignment not posted
    Stephanie - replaced by East(2)
    Benedict Arnold - replaced by Vash103(2)
    Gold Digger - alignment not posted
    vultura - replaced by Rokchick(2)

    KP's:
    (occur at noon, Eastern Standard Time)
    KP-1:
    http://forum.travian.us/showthread.p...=1#post2677818
    KP-2:
    http://forum.travian.us/showthread.p...=1#post2678005
    KP-3:
    http://forum.travian.us/showthread.p...=1#post2678183
    KP-4:
    http://forum.travian.us/showthread.p...=1#post2678365
    KP-5:
    http://forum.travian.us/showthread.p...=1#post2678562
    KP-6:
    http://forum.travian.us/showthread.p...=1#post2678649

    Mafia wins
    For full listing of roles, see here:
    http://forum.travian.us/showthread.p...=1#post2678859

    (pm'ing out roles now... please be patient)
    Last edited by jason_kroeker; 02-10-2014 at 08:06 PM.

  4. #4
    Consul The Burninator's Avatar
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    Vote: No lynch
    Reason: Snow == I'm not sure when I'll be able to get back to this, and jk's rule about not voting is harsh!

    This round though... much complication.

  5. #5
    Slippery's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Burninator View Post
    Vote: No lynch
    Reason: Snow == I'm not sure when I'll be able to get back to this, and jk's rule about not voting is harsh!

    This round though... much complication.
    Very much agreed. It's going to be difficult not knowing exactly which roles are involved. I hope others have experience with this because I sure don't lol.

    Oh and
    Vote: No Lynch
    Reason: I'm scared

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Burninator View Post
    Vote: No lynch
    Reason: Snow == I'm not sure when I'll be able to get back to this, and jk's rule about not voting is harsh!

    This round though... much complication.
    What part of...
    Quote Originally Posted by jason_kroeker View Post
    (pm'ing out roles now... please be patient)
    did you not understand? Troublemaker! :-p

    Update - all roles have been PM'ed. The round has NOW begun. KP-1 will be tomorrow at noon, EST (26.5 hours from the time of this post).

  7. #7

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    Vote:Jason
    S1R3- Seoul braddah-Yarr
    S1R4 Dollface- 7RU FTW!!!!!
    S1R5 ThatGuy- HB
    S1R6 Yosemite Sam-Toons
    S3-Raefon-DOS
    S3-OnePiece
    S5R7- OnePiece

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Bacon View Post
    Vote:Jason
    I am using my right to edit the rules (see Rule 8) to update Rule 2:
    Quote Originally Posted by jason_kroeker View Post
    2. No lynch votes are permitted at any time. Anyone who does not vote for someone still alive and playing the game on a given day will be counted as a vote against themselves (not a “no lynch” vote).
    Take that!

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by jason_kroeker View Post
    I am using my right to edit the rules (see Rule 8) to update Rule 2:

    Take that!
    But I still want to know what happens when you lynch the host! =P

    Vote: No Lynch
    Reason: First day

    This round already has my head spinning /o\ But WOLVES! So cool.
    us3-r7: yeonah

    Quote Originally Posted by The Burninator View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by YeonAh View Post
    fix
    You keep using that word.

    I am not thinking it means what you think it means.

  10. #10
    Consul Rokchick's Avatar
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    So we have sneaky baddies and now hairy baddies. Who wants to try a random lynch? Or:
    lynch: the lunch thief
    Edit. oops that might be a vote against me. I'll be back after kp nighty night.

    vote: no lynch
    Last edited by Rokchick; 02-03-2014 at 02:40 PM.
    I'm glad I'm not judgemental like all you smug, superficial idiots

  11. #11
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    Vote: mbstokem
    Voting for him is turning into my good luck charm.

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    Vote: Sirveri
    Reason: Those dreadful KP's
    Quote Originally Posted by Benedict Arnold View Post
    Now go on you, shoo!

  13. #13

    Flossie Schmumpus's Avatar
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    *Sends suicide attack on Jason* Take that for making it detrimental to voting for you.....Grrr.

    Vote: Jason

    Reason: Just because....and there are plenty of hours left in the day for me to change my mind.
    Note:Any posts made by this poster should always be construed in the most innocent angelic way possible. The poster is not responsible for where your depraved minds go, if you have a depraved mind.

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  14. #14
    Philosopher JuliusCaesar's Avatar
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    Vote: No lynch
    Resaon: Day one shenanigans

    Quote Originally Posted by Zingoleb View Post
    I walked into shoe barefoot one day.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jacana View Post
    'Cept JC, he's got it right.

  15. #15
    Philosopher Vash103's Avatar
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    @ HS: You're better with the statistics and I'm lazy. What are your thoughts on "No lynch" HS? If I'm not mistaken a town "No lynch" might be a bad idea night 1. Firstly there is an odd amount of players, second of all there are 3 factions and multiple kill roles. It might actually be best to have a majority controlled town lynch.


    Quote Originally Posted by Rokchick View Post
    So we have sneaky baddies and now hairy baddies. Who wants to try a random lynch? Or:
    lynch: the lunch thief
    Edit. oops that might be a vote against me. I'll be back after kp nighty night.

    vote: no lynch
    ^ I will ALWAYS assume you are a non town role when you edit a post without reason stated in mafia:

    Vote: Rokchick
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Chak View Post
    By Gump's magical shoes, you've been around since 2007 - how is that possible?
    I know I'm what you're dreaming of. My name is Vash, man of love.

  16. #16
    Senator gebne's Avatar
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    Vote: No Lynch
    Reason: I think the KP happens at 3am for me and No Lynch haunts my nightmares.
    us1rd4 Shakin&Bakin | us2rd3 DarkFather Dual #665 | us6rd1 NoMercy | us9rd1 NotAMyth (sorceys raid slave and sandwich maker)
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    Occasionally worshipped by Mitachuk, Hej and Vigil
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  17. #17

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    vote: Gebne
    It's tradition
    Quote Originally Posted by mbstokem View Post
    o ya. i hope he goes back to it. i liked my name being in some1's sig

  18. #18
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    Vash makes a good point. Right now there are probably so many non-town that a no lynch may actually hurt us. I would rather we choose someone (preferably someone scummy) and bandwagon on that person.

    EDIT:

    Unvote: Sirveri

    No senseless throwaways or no lynching today. Let's actually be productive.
    Last edited by FTP; 02-03-2014 at 07:38 PM. Reason: unvoted sirv
    Quote Originally Posted by Benedict Arnold View Post
    Now go on you, shoo!

  19. #19
    Philosopher Hidden sage's Avatar
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    21 players, two non-town factions, a vig and SK possibilities? Too many branching possibilities for the statistics to go far, especially with protection roles that work against some kills and not others.

    That said, this post will be real talk, since I was posting from a cell phone earlier and couldn't type freely.

    Two factions with kill powers. One needs multiple members to go on a kill (2 to kill at all, three to bypass protection), and a 21-player pool. My betting odds say 3-4 mafia (4 is more likely), and 5-6 werewolves (5 is most likely, and they get more people because of the pack hunting rule). The Tlr: town is probably never going to be a majority of the vote after tonight, acting instead as a plurality.

    Town gets some grace in those numbers because both factions have to play against each other. Mafia will be acting townish to curry votes against werewolves, and vice versa. Plus, detective roles (Seer and Cop) will actually get some extra help-- a mafia benefits from protecting a seer, since the seer can help them with a mutual enemy. Werewolves will feel the same about cops, though both non-town groups will be wary of trackers. This is important because the town-aligned players' task is not controlling lynches, but in playing the two evil sides against each other. Likewise, both mafia and werewolves want to get the town to focus on the other non-town faction. Three-way political races are fun.

    Also, if there IS a psychic-- Do NOT roleclaim unless on the verge of being lynched. Same goes for the mortician. Those two roles are town's only way to check progress against the other factions, which makes you important. Keeping targets off your back is possibly our highest priority. And yes, we could just demand early roleclaims and dedicate protection to you, but then our guarding and healing roles are tied up all game and the other factions can run freely.

    Definitely in favor of having real discourse and a lynch for a change. Night 1 lynches tend to be based on weak evidence, but it gives more to discuss day 2, which is better all around.

  20. #20

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    Vote: Flossie

    She is only acting sweet and innocent.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonothan Crane
    Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.

  21. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hidden sage View Post
    And yes, we could just demand early roleclaims and dedicate protection to you, but then our guarding and healing roles are tied up all game and the other factions can run freely.
    No. I'm completely against this. Defeats the whole purpose of the game, the only instance I find roleclaims acceptable is if it is for self preservation and to lead a lynch with what you gathered using your role.
    Quote Originally Posted by mbstokem View Post
    o ya. i hope he goes back to it. i liked my name being in some1's sig

  22. #22
    Consul The Burninator's Avatar
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    Look jk, I vote when I want. I'm not a part of your system.
    (Vote: No Lynch.)

    Also, if you would please raise your hand if you're town, that'd be nice.

  23. #23
    Merchant bw87's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mbstokem View Post
    No. I'm completely against this. Defeats the whole purpose of the game, the only instance I find roleclaims acceptable is if it is for self preservation and to lead a lynch with what you gathered using your role.
    Early role claims usually makes it no fun for both sides.

    Vote: no lynch

  24. #24
    Philosopher Vash103's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hidden sage View Post
    21 players, two non-town factions, a vig and SK possibilities? Too many branching possibilities for the statistics to go far, especially with protection roles that work against some kills and not others.

    That said, this post will be real talk, since I was posting from a cell phone earlier and couldn't type freely.

    Two factions with kill powers. One needs multiple members to go on a kill (2 to kill at all, three to bypass protection), and a 21-player pool. My betting odds say 3-4 mafia (4 is more likely), and 5-6 werewolves (5 is most likely, and they get more people because of the pack hunting rule). The Tlr: town is probably never going to be a majority of the vote after tonight, acting instead as a plurality.

    Town gets some grace in those numbers because both factions have to play against each other. Mafia will be acting townish to curry votes against werewolves, and vice versa. Plus, detective roles (Seer and Cop) will actually get some extra help-- a mafia benefits from protecting a seer, since the seer can help them with a mutual enemy. Werewolves will feel the same about cops, though both non-town groups will be wary of trackers. This is important because the town-aligned players' task is not controlling lynches, but in playing the two evil sides against each other. Likewise, both mafia and werewolves want to get the town to focus on the other non-town faction. Three-way political races are fun.

    Also, if there IS a psychic-- Do NOT roleclaim unless on the verge of being lynched. Same goes for the mortician. Those two roles are town's only way to check progress against the other factions, which makes you important. Keeping targets off your back is possibly our highest priority. And yes, we could just demand early roleclaims and dedicate protection to you, but then our guarding and healing roles are tied up all game and the other factions can run freely.

    Definitely in favor of having real discourse and a lynch for a change. Night 1 lynches tend to be based on weak evidence, but it gives more to discuss day 2, which is better all around.
    Mayhaps I overestimate you HS but I feel you would have calculated the probability despite the many factors, and would have done a decent job, hence why I asked you. I got no definite answer to my question either. Not only that but asking the psychic not to claim? I'm not really sure how this round works. If there is no mortician in this round do we not get any kp results?

    FoS:HS

    Also: I think the only reason the psychic should not claim day 3 (Assuming he's alive and has n1+2 reesults knowing how many wolves/mafia there are) would be if the mortician is dead/doesn't exist, since if we see kp results, we'd still be able to keep track of mafia/wolf numbers based on that and gain a comf town.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Chak View Post
    By Gump's magical shoes, you've been around since 2007 - how is that possible?
    I know I'm what you're dreaming of. My name is Vash, man of love.

  25. #25

    Flossie Schmumpus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bunyip View Post
    Vote: Flossie

    She is only acting sweet and innocent.
    *Kicks Scare in the shins* *Kicks Bunyip twice as hard in the shins for good measure*

    Quote Originally Posted by The Burninator View Post
    Look jk, I vote when I want. I'm not a part of your system.
    (Vote: No Lynch.)

    Also, if you would please raise your hand if you're town, that'd be nice.

    This sounds oh so scummy and wrong headed.

    Unvote: Jason, sorry Jason I just don't lub you anymore.

    Vote: Burninator

    Reason: Sounds scummy
    Note:Any posts made by this poster should always be construed in the most innocent angelic way possible. The poster is not responsible for where your depraved minds go, if you have a depraved mind.

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  26. #26
    Philosopher Vash103's Avatar
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    Also not much weight to this, just a gut feeling based on wordplay, I feel like flossie, stephanie and crow are in a faction together.

    plus:

    Lynch
    Role-Blocker
    Tracker, except Hunter (may also track a Role-Block, if not RB’ed themselves)
    Investigator
    Protector
    Killer
    Healer
    Hunter (if in play)
    Psychic (if in play)

    I infer from this, since the parenthesis only pertain to two, every other role IS in play.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Chak View Post
    By Gump's magical shoes, you've been around since 2007 - how is that possible?
    I know I'm what you're dreaming of. My name is Vash, man of love.

  27. #27
    Consul Sirveri's Avatar
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    Vote: Jacana
    Reason: Night 1 tradition.

    Quote Originally Posted by Joshyyy View Post
    There is some serious misquoting potential above.
    The rep system should be abolished.

  28. #28

    Scarecrow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash103 View Post
    Also not much weight to this, just a gut feeling based on wordplay, I feel like flossie, stephanie and crow are in a faction together.

    plus:

    Lynch
    Role-Blocker
    Tracker, except Hunter (may also track a Role-Block, if not RB’ed themselves)
    Investigator
    Protector
    Killer
    Healer
    Hunter (if in play)
    Psychic (if in play)

    I infer from this, since the parenthesis only pertain to two, every other role IS in play.
    If the faction is town then sure.

    I feel as though you're looking too far into it all (even in regards to analysis by HS. Way too many factors to consider a proper analysis. Gut feel is lynch is best n1 however.). JK has always been thorough and so I would have expected it to have been included regardless of whether or not the roles are in play.

    FOS: Vash

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonothan Crane
    Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.

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    Vash, I appreciate the apparent claim of my ability and dedication, that you'd expect me to be able to run a statistical breakdown of a 12-variable function (four kill roles, a lynch, four protects, and three heals) all interacting at various (usually low) probabilities with each other and with the (unknown) population size of three different factions that compose one total population sphere. Ohh, and that is without counting the 1-2 roleblockers sure to be in the round.

    But as it turns out, I'm kinda in the middle of putting a new windows install on my desktop, and it's only because of the linux dualboot I'm using to set the files up that I can even get online to post.

    If I get everything working in the next two hours, I'll take a crack at it. Just because I haven 't leveraged that skillset in ages. But I'm not promising results. And I am mighty curious of the fact you would consider me scummy for refusing to do a problem most of the people in this thread couldn't even formulate accurately. *

    *Note: not meant as an insult to anyone else here. I had to do this sort of thing a few times for an econometrics section in college. Engineering and econ and pure mathematics are the only fields where it's worth the time investment to learn to write and resolve multi-variable functions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash103 View Post
    Also not much weight to this, just a gut feeling based on wordplay, I feel like flossie, stephanie and crow are in a faction together.
    I find this funny because I actually agree with SC's (bunyip) FOS on you My luck is he'll turn out to be a warewolf and literally bite me in the buttocks (or mafia but I couldn't think of a joke for mafia)! lol

    That being said, why did you FOS HS? I feel like he responded well to you and you just turned on him for it... almost like that was your plan, which seems scummy to me. However, I do think you are on to something about avoiding a no lynch situation for tomorrow with so many power roles present *sigh* so I don't really know.

    Anybody else have thoughts or is everyone just going to place a 'no lynch' and be done with it? Also, those of you placing votes is that because a random is better than a no lynch? I've only ever voted for a random if they were inactive. Please ignore this if it's going to out yourself too early.

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    Screw it.
    Unvote: Flossie
    Vote: Vash

    Flossie was a random vote for the feeling that a n1 lynch with as many variables would be better. Given the direction Vash has been taking it though, it'd be better to vote for someone who is at least giving me vibes.

    @Steph:
    I think the vast majority are voting no lynch out of habit and that they don't otherwise see anything to go on as yet. While it can be analysed well in smaller games and usually end up coming out on top statistically.
    Given the vast majority of turns this game can take with all the unknowns in play and various factions, a random lynch may very well turn out as a lynch on either werewolf or mafia. Even if we end up outnumbered throughout the game (I see as quite possible), we can still rely on the numbers of another faction to prop us up to the point we can sway the game back to our side.
    In the end however, it's mostly just intuition saying a random lynch is better than no lynch at this point in time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonothan Crane
    Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.

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    Unrelated: could the host clarify how the many protection/healer roles interact with the vigilante and the serial killer? Annoyed as I am by the absurdity of Vash's request for a statistical breakdown, I still mean to try it at some point (probably tomorrow when my computer is fully functional again), and would like to have the variables clarified.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bunyip View Post
    @Steph:
    I think the vast majority are voting no lynch out of habit and that they don't otherwise see anything to go on as yet. While it can be analysed well in smaller games and usually end up coming out on top statistically.
    Given the vast majority of turns this game can take with all the unknowns in play and various factions, a random lynch may very well turn out as a lynch on either werewolf or mafia. Even if we end up outnumbered throughout the game (I see as quite possible), we can still rely on the numbers of another faction to prop us up to the point we can sway the game back to our side.
    In the end however, it's mostly just intuition saying a random lynch is better than no lynch at this point in time.
    Thank you, you are always so sweet!

    I'm going to wait until first thing in the morning to change my no lynch to someone. Just not fully sold on anything yet and I don't want to confuse Jason if I happen to change my mind again lol.

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    Alright, shorthand because I had paper handy and needed to wait for my usb boot drive to format:

    All numbers assume totally random targeting of all roles, that all roles are in play and will be used, and that I hit the right buttons in the calculator. These figures do not account for the chances of multiple kill roles targeting one person, but do account for muliple protections targeting one person, so the actual average death rate will be a tad lower than stated. I assume 4 mafia and 5 werewolves are in the round at the start of the round for purposes of relative death chances.

    Assuming all protection roles and healing roles can stop both mafia and werewolf kills, there is a ~69.8% chance of a vigi or SK kill succeeding if sent. In addition, there is a 14.26% chance of a protection role intervening and leading to the death of that role, with 4.75% chances the vigi or sk dies as well (Elite bodyguard). Total average for both roles: 1.74 kills per night. with .417 werewolf deaths, .338 mafia deaths, and .995 townie kills per night, with an additional .09 townie deaths for the bodyguards being targets.

    Werewolves, if 3 are sent, are guaranteed one kill per night, 25% chance of targeting mafia, 75% town or indy. However, there is a 9.75% chance that a werewolf is killed during that by a guardian or wolfsbane, with half of that leading to the death of a town-aligned guardian as well. Total rates of death are .25 mafia, .75 town, and .1 werewolves per night.

    The mafia kill has an %81.45 chance to succeed, and a 9.75% chance to hit a bodyguard role, with 4.9% (half of the second) being an elite guard. Target rate is 29.4% chance to hit werewolves, 70.6% to hit town. Death rate is .96 deaths total, broken down as .67 townies, .24 werewolves, and .05 mafia per night.

    Total non-lynch fatality rate for night one is 2.5 town deaths, .64 mafia deaths, and .71 werewolf deaths per night, for 3.85 deaths total tonight. Excluding the lynch. There being 12 townies, the town would die off in 5 days at this pace. 4 mafia would last 6 days, the werewolves would last 7, if all the math was done right (and this is a VERY rough approximation, so it probably isn't). Changes in what roles live will break the math too much to extrapolate future days, but it goes without saying that town needs to make the lynches count to succeed here. Thankfully, we have a ton of tracker and investigative roles, so a few of them may live long enough to affect the discussion.

    As for night one lynches: a 42.4% chance of offing a mafia or werewolf out of the gate ain't bad, assuming full random. And town may need the diceroll to succeed here.

    TlR a pox on you, Vash, for goading me into this. This is the short version of the math, and I still lost almost forty-five minutes of my life to you.

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    Even though it was only shorthand (you've more patience than I do to have even bothered doing it) at least you'd pretty much confirmed my intuition being on the mark regarding random lynch first night.

    EDIT: Or at least agree with it.
    Last edited by Scarecrow; 02-04-2014 at 01:50 AM.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonothan Crane
    Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bunyip View Post
    Even though it was only shorthand (you've more patience than I do to have even bothered doing it) at least you'd pretty much confirmed my intuition being on the mark regarding random lynch first night.

    EDIT: Or at least agree with it.
    I seem to remember someone else tossing out this notion first...

    Also, as I stated, HS was the perfect person to do these numbers and actually did them.

    HS, if you were wolf/mafioso, I highly doubt you would have done that too since it's so involved and would have been easy for you to avoid.


    So much more I want to say at the moment but there are so many factors in this one it's difficult atm...


    I re-ask my question about the psychic again. Should the psychic not claim D3 if the mortician is still alive?

    Also, if there is a hunter, shouldn't he role claim asap? His/her ability is only 50% to activate anyway, the mafia wouldn't want to kill the hunter cause the hunter's role only hinders mafia/towns mutual enemy the werewolf, and provided the hunter is protected by the doc and not roleblock (Keep in mind mafia wouldn't roleblock the hunter, only wolves would if they could) He/she could announce his findings everyday.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Chak View Post
    By Gump's magical shoes, you've been around since 2007 - how is that possible?
    I know I'm what you're dreaming of. My name is Vash, man of love.

  37. #37


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    Quote Originally Posted by bw87 View Post
    Early role claims usually makes it no fun for both sides.
    But now both is three, so now what? Also, in rules, it says claims are discouraged.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vash103 View Post
    Also not much weight to this, just a gut feeling based on wordplay, I feel like flossie, stephanie and crow are in a faction
    ...
    I infer from this, since the parenthesis only pertain to two, every other role is in play.
    Please make sure to use proper names, for our newer players (crow is scarecrow, who is Bunyip).
    Also, I noted 2 roles as "(if present)" because they are newly created single roles - I believe the rest are groups of roles.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hidden sage View Post
    Unrelated: could the host clarify how the many protection/healer roles interact with the vigilante and the serial killer? Annoyed as I am by the absurdity of Vash's request for a statistical breakdown, I still mean to try it at some point (probably tomorrow when my computer is fully functional again), and would like to have the variables clarified.
    I know you did the analysis already. But doctor and cleric interact with only 1 faction. Master healer can heal from any killer. And we're there any other? (Sorry, on phone so cannot look up right now).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash103 View Post
    Also, if there is a hunter, shouldn't he role claim asap? His/her ability is only 50% to activate anyway, the mafia wouldn't want to kill the hunter cause the hunter's role only hinders mafia/towns mutual enemy the werewolf, and provided the hunter is protected by the doc and not roleblock (Keep in mind mafia wouldn't roleblock the hunter, only wolves would if they could) He/she could announce his findings everyday.
    Hunter is not the only vital tracking role, you know. This idea would help us in JUST finding werewolves, but would keep the heat off the mafia. Why can't tracker out instead, and we protect him? He would be far more valuable and versatile in finding members of any faction. To me your suggestion here sounds eerily like a request to the hunter to joint hunt a mutual enemy. I'm not against the idea of finding the werewolves, of course, but that idea of yours has an apparent mafia bias to it.

    And Vash, it was kind of weird how you voted HS because he didn't give you what you wanted right away. It looked like you were grasping for a scapegoat to get everyone to bandwagon on him with you.

    I think so far it's just been fos' on you, so I'll go ahead and start.

    Vote: Vash103
    Reason: Your idea of lynching today instead of letting it go to waste does not compensate for your scuminess.

    EDIT:

    I'm also going to FoS: Stephanie for the following reason.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stephanie View Post
    Very much agreed. It's going to be difficult not knowing exactly which roles are involved. I hope others have experience with this because I sure don't lol.

    Oh and
    Vote: No Lynch
    Reason: I'm scared
    Quote Originally Posted by Stephanie View Post
    I find this funny because I actually agree with SC's (bunyip) FOS on you My luck is he'll turn out to be a warewolf and literally bite me in the buttocks (or mafia but I couldn't think of a joke for mafia)! lol

    That being said, why did you FOS HS? I feel like he responded well to you and you just turned on him for it... almost like that was your plan, which seems scummy to me. However, I do think you are on to something about avoiding a no lynch situation for tomorrow with so many power roles present *sigh* so I don't really know.

    Anybody else have thoughts or is everyone just going to place a 'no lynch' and be done with it? Also, those of you placing votes is that because a random is better than a no lynch? I've only ever voted for a random if they were inactive. Please ignore this if it's going to out yourself too early.
    I'm always wary of people who play dumb or act cute, especially of forum vets with 1700+ posts. That said, I used that reasoning to vote for Gebne a couple rounds back and she ended up being inno, so I'm not confident enough to vote for Stephanie at the moment. I'm going to pay close attention to her response to my FoS on her first.
    Last edited by FTP; 02-04-2014 at 02:55 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Benedict Arnold View Post
    Now go on you, shoo!

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    Why would we pull for a vash lynch night 1? He isn't even acting scummy...

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    Quote Originally Posted by FTP View Post
    forum vets with 1700+ posts.
    Totally the first time someone called me a forum vet. In case you don't know who I am, I am Slippery the super amazing Smod... where most of my posts came from. We have the duo accounts for "Travian official business" now.... like Scarecrow and bunyip! But regardless I appreciate the compliment!

    Also, I feel like I HAVE to respond to your FOS since you mentioned paying attention to it lol. I wasn't trying to be cute or dumb, trust me you'll probably see the dumb come out eventually I'm sure lol. I'm 9 months pregnant and I feel like I've lost my mind! Seriously though this round is uber complicated and when I first read the roles and rules I felt so overwhelmed. Everyone says I'm a decent at this game but I've only played a handful of rounds and never with this much complication. Jason really deserves some freaking kudos for putting this together! That being said it seems as though this round has more communication happening than other rounds I've played which makes me feel a lot better.

    Moving along.... I'm not sold on voting for Vash but I'm getting closer... my reason for thinking he's scummy was his FOS on HS and now the fact he wants people to role claim so early. I mean I can kind of see a point but Jason said it was discouraged and it's been established that we need to get a jump start. Specifically with the want for the Hunter to role claim. I always thought it was better to NOT role claim and rather try to lead lynches in a vague way. I once role claimed with a power role when up for a lynch and I was told it was never a good idea to out a power role. I ended up getting lynched anyway because nobody believed me lol but the advice sounded good. Regardless with that idea combined with Vash being amazing, I wouldn't be surprised if we learn sometime along the way that he howls at the moon!

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